Weekly Digest: April 2025 | Week 3

Highlights

• Bitcoin surged 7% to $83,700, rebounding after the U.S. softened tariff stances and clarified policies on Chinese tech imports.

• Bond markets tumbled, with 10-year Treasury yields spiking 12%, fueling stagflation fears and market turbulence.

• Tether announced a U.S.-exclusive institutional stablecoin, intensifying the battle for dominance in the regulated stablecoin space.

• Ethereum underperforms, while Solana and XRP capture momentum through institutional flows and product innovation.

Macro Market Update

After weeks of global trade tension, markets rebounded sharply as the U.S. paused reciprocal tariffs for most countries and clarified that the harshest duties wouldn’t apply to tech products like smartphones and computers. While the policy shift relieved market fears, the broader macro backdrop remains uncertain:

• CPI YoY: 2.4% (vs 2.6% forecast) — signs of disinflation

• PPI YoY: 2.7% (vs 3.3% forecast)

• 10-year yield: Spiked to 4.5%, highest since 2022

• 30-year yield: Rose to 5%, a 10% weekly gain

Markets initially panicked, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting year-lows, but Wednesday’s tariff clarification sparked one of the biggest single-day rallies in over a year:

• Nasdaq: +7.3% weekly

• S&P 500: +5.7% weekly

Our take: Bitcoin’s relatively muted volatility during the macro storm (vs previous drawdowns) reinforces its evolving status as a risk-managed asset. It’s no longer simply following TradFi’s panic but reacting to macro with a more nuanced correlation.

Crypto Market Update

Crypto markets swung with the broader economy:

• Bitcoin: +7% → $83,700

• Ethereum: +1% → $1,600

• ETH/BTC ratio: Dropped to 0.019 (lowest in 5 years)

• GMCI30 index: +7% weekly

However, ETF flows remained net negative:

• BTC ETFs: $700M outflows (IBIT -$343M, GBTC -$160M)

• ETH ETFs: $80M outflows

Positive signs:

• Options trading launched for spot ETH ETFs (BlackRock, Grayscale, Bitwise)

• SEC decisions pending on ETH ETF staking integration by October 2025

XRP ETF debut: Teucrium launched the XXRP ETF, offering 2x daily exposure to XRP. Grayscale, Bitwise, and others are now accelerating filings for spot XRP ETFs after Ripple’s favorable legal outcome.

Our take: Despite ETH underperformance, innovation across ETFs (ETH staking, XRP products) shows expanding institutional tooling. Bitcoin’s steady price action through volatility only strengthens its appeal in a mixed macro regime.

Stablecoin Market Update

Tether is preparing a U.S.-exclusive institutional stablecoin to support interbank settlements, signaling:

• A response to growing U.S. regulatory clarity

• An attempt to close the compliance gap with Circle’s USDC

Stablecoin market 2025 growth:

• Total market cap: $233B (+15% YTD)

• USDC: +$16B → Taking market share on Ethereum & Solana

• USDT: +$7B → Dominant on Tron, but losing share on ETH/Solana

Chain-specific dynamics:

• Ethereum: $110B → $123B stablecoin market

• Solana: $5.3B → $12B (USDC-led growth)

• Tron: $61B → $67B (USDT-dominated)

Our take: USDC’s strong regulatory profile and integrations into DeFi protocols give it a clear edge in compliant markets. Tether’s U.S. stablecoin could be a powerful institutional on-ramp—if executed with transparency and regulatory alignment.

Closing Thoughts

• Macro uncertainty persists, but crypto markets are adapting to the noise rather than reacting with blind volatility.

• Bitcoin’s behavior is increasingly correlated with macro risk premia, while Ethereum’s economic model faces persistent scrutiny.

• Stablecoins and Layer 1s continue to evolve as regulated capital flows and ETF innovation reshape institutional on-ramps.

FinchTrade is here to provide reliable execution, flexible liquidity, and trusted market insights through every macro regime.

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